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The library

Guides for people who want to beat the crowd

Mechanics, skills, strategies, and the honest math — everything we know about prediction markets, written down. Practice any of it free with a $100 paper bankroll.

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The foundations

Basics

How prediction markets work

Contracts, prices as probabilities, settlement — the five-minute foundation.

Read the guide → Basics

How to read prediction market odds

What 64¢ means, bid vs ask, spreads, and converting prices to American odds.

Read the guide → Basics

Are prediction markets accurate?

What the evidence shows — well-calibrated in aggregate, with two known blind spots.

Read the guide →

Getting good

Skills & strategy

Skills

How to get good at prediction markets

Calibration, sizing, specialization. The trainable skills, with the research that says they train.

Read the guide → Strategy

Strategies, honestly assessed

Favorite-longshot bias, junk bonds, maker pricing, news edges — what holds up.

Read the guide → Risk

Bankroll management & Kelly

Kelly for binary contracts, drawdown math, and stakes that survive a losing streak.

Read the guide → Risk

Mistakes that empty bankrolls

The seven ways new traders donate, ranked by cost — and how to train them out.

Read the guide → Crossover

Prediction markets vs sports betting

Vig, closing line value, tradeable positions — a translation guide for bettors.

Read the guide → Platforms

Kalshi vs Polymarket

Regulation, fees, access, and market depth. The honest side-by-side, checked July 2026.

Read the guide → Platforms

Kalshi alternatives

Polymarket, Robinhood, ForecastEx, Manifold, and the free practice lane. No affiliate stake.

Read the guide → Platforms

Polymarket alternatives

Where to trade, play, or practice instead. One real limitation each, checked July 2026.

Read the guide →

Practice

Paper trading

Practice

What makes a good simulator

Live odds, real settlement, a record you can't reset — what to look for and why.

Read the guide → Practice

Kalshi paper trading

Kalshi's demo is real but trades simulated books. How to practice on live markets instead.

Read the guide → Practice

Polymarket paper trading

The US app is open now, and there is still no demo mode. How to practice free instead.

Read the guide → Practice

Sports betting simulator

Real odds, live games, player props — with paper instead of a bankroll.

Read the guide → Practice

Kalshi demo account

Exact setup steps, what to do in your first hour, and the point where the demo stops teaching.

Read the guide → Practice

Kalshi simulator

The three ways to trade Kalshi with fake money, and the fee drag none of them charges.

Read the guide → Practice

Polymarket demo account

There isn't one, on either version. The closest free substitutes, ranked honestly.

Read the guide →

Reading is the easy part.

Ten seconds to your first paper trade. Live odds, a $100 bankroll, and a record that proves you were right.

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